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The Ukrainian crisis offers the West an opportunity to create a new military alliance in the buffer zone between Europe and Russia. Ukraine is a “prelude” of the plan, diverting attention of Moscow from the steps of formation of a new military-political union. According to Western political scientists, the cornerstone of this alliance will be Poland.

Interestingly in this alliance the specialists see Poland, Romania and Turkey. If the Ukrainian crisis has a direct relationship with Warsaw and Bucharest, but Ankara considers it as a process aimed at the suspension of further strengthening of Moscow.

Poland and Romania are concerned with the strengthening of Russia at any level. But in this issue they meet the resistance of Germany which does not wish to jeopardize the already crisis relationship of EU-RF and to create a threat for the Western borders of NATO. At the same time Berlin is mostly dependent on Russian energy, and in total status quo is preferable for it. Eastern EU members have no choice but to reconcile with the position of Germany.

The Polish elite prefer to create a defensive or attacking alliance, though there is no Russian threat in reality. At the same time EU membership urges Warsaw to some restraint.

According to Western experts, for the Russian Black Sea fleet situation will become more complicated if Kyiv authorities would rule further, and in this case Crimea, appeared in the blockade, may lose its significance for Russia.

Ankara does not want to see the Black Sea as a possible military actions scene. At the same time Turkey does not wish to be aside from the new-forming union. Turkey has more expectations from Iraqi and Iranian energy resources, and increase of Russian influence is the main threat to Turkish prospects.

Russia faces a choice. Extending of Ukrainian crisis could lead to the rapid formation of Poland-Romania-Turkey union. Moscow will tolerate the Kiev authorities if they refuse to join any international structure. Instead Russia can guarantee Ukraine’s territorial integrity.


Category: #25 (1043) 3.07.2014 – 9.07.2014, News, Spotlight, Region