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On March 17, in the area of al-Jazeera in northern Syria, the Kurds have declared the autonomy of the federal format. For six months the founding board of the district intends to develop a paper on the federal structure and the work of the implementation of the document will take place by an elected council of 31 people. In fact, the process of federalization of Syria has started, and that will change the situation in Syria, and the entire political map of the Middle East.
After Putin’s statement on the withdrawal of Russian military air forces from Syria, the situation in the country from the military has moved to the political field. The proclamation of autonomy in Syria could serve as a model for other religious and ethnic communities. Already Ankara has become active, intending to create in the Northern border areas an autonomy of Turkomans. Druze residing in Syria may also require autonomy and gain support of living in Israel and in Lebanon their fellow-compatriots.
So, on the religious and ethnic basis Syria can be divided into: “Sunnistan” (central areas, which are now under the control of the Islamic state, Dzhebhat al-Nusra and other organizations), “Alevistan” (in Latakia, and in the Mediterranean region). In this process it will be important the position of Armenians and other Christian communities as well.
The federalization of Syria may have an impact on other countries in the region: Iraq, Turkey, Iran, etc. The Kurds of Iraq have started to form their own state and prepare to declare independence. In this situation, Ankara faces a serious challenge, since a new impetus of Kurdish liberation movement is growing in Turkey.
Although Turkey is against the creation of a Kurdish autonomy in Syria, but it is of quite a different opinion about the Iraqi Kurds. Ankara hopes to control through them oil areas in the north of Iraq. It is not excluded that the “Kurdish Spring” picks up the pace in Iran.
In fact, Syria’s federalization could eliminate obstacles in the way of the federalization of Iraq. Naturally, that Tehran would not tolerate the increase of Turkish influence in Syria and Iraq, and try to balance the situation, raising the question of autonomy of Iraqi Shiites. For this reason, against the federalization of Syria have already reacted the United States and part of the EU states, but this process can be one of the options for establishing peace in the country.